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The jj has some details that appear to be quirks, or "undocumented
features" that actually were intended.
Shooters do not get credit in jj for firing at their targets the instant
the target appears in sight. The delays vary slightly, but are never greater
than five minutes after sighting, with two minutes the most likely duration.
This also attempts to reduce the probability of scoring on the first salvo
that actually would've been fired, in a ranging mode. Under certain conditions,
the average time delay drops to 1 minute. Those latter instances are usually
when one side knows where the enemy will likely appear and possesses certain
initiative advantages. One such example has already occurred in the Baron's
Jutland, during the plunging of the Baron's light ships into the smoke
to torpedo the last two RN BCs. Those light ships had a greatly reduced "threat vector" and had the initiative bonus for those few minutes.
In short, during that brief interval, they knew that the enemy would be
there and in what direction.
The conditions, as 7 PM approaches in Letterstime, are that visibility
ranges are spiking for different targets. Konig, at the head of the LOB,
is just out of sight of RN shooters further back in their LOB even with
the fire. Centurion, because she is the third in LOB, can be seen by many
in the HSF LOB, despite her being beyond "base visibility." Ajax, with a small --- but still prominent --- fire at her top, suffers
from a further increase her sighting distance (as a target.) Both Ajax
and Markgraf will have reduced accuracy in a few salvos, due to loss of
the position atop the mast. As a side note, in close range actions, jj
seems to output one or two such hits per fleet battle, but the author
has never before seen two in the same six minute cycle (let alone in the
same minute!).
So, what has happened in the few minutes before this? Well, a lot of
shooting has been going on! The flashes, like heat lightning, were clear
as to what vector to scrutinize. The turrets all were trained in that
general direction. Once the Centurion's fires illuminated herself and
the ships just ahead and astern like a massive star shell, the jj would
predict that in a minute or three that several HSF ships further back
in the HSF LOB would fire at Centurion (and perhaps Ajax). What then?
Well, their own muzzle flashes would increase their own visibility for
the next RN LOB ships, the Orions. Once the Orions return the HSF fire,
in a minute or three, then the Orions would themselves become more visible
due to their own muzzle flashes. After another minute or three, the Kaisers
and maybe Ostfriesland, would re-prioritize and return fire. Thus, to
an outside spectator, the growing number of muzzle flashes in the two
LOBs would appear to propagate down both Lines in a rippling effect.
All that in the above paragraph would occur in about one 6 minute cycle,
and certainly no more than two such cycles, per the jj model. The initial
salvos of all the ships firing at the edge of "fire enhanced visibility"
would be lower in hit probability than normal. The initial salvos returning
fire would also be lower probability. Yet, "lower" probability
is not "zero" probability. The jj models the above just as described,
but it is very user-demanding to run.
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