Letterstime: Ein Geleitzug

"Because you're so bloody terrified, the admiral thinks you are the one analyst he can trust to keep quiet and inconspicuous. This is going to be his show. In no way would he ever let someone like Nigel get in the same room with our distinguished visitors."

Lt. Cmdr Joseph Kenworthy was the head of the political section of the Naval Intelligence Division. Admiral Oliver had eventually decided him to include him in their deliberations. He had also selected Felix to prepare supporting materials for the briefing such as intelligence reports, maps, photographs and diagrams. Felix was now busily arranging manila folders with the pertinent materials. A phone call a half hour ago had informed Admiral Oliver than his visitors would be arriving earlier than originally scheduled.

"Besides Felix, the captain thinks you have a good head for detail. I've heard him say so several times," Joe replied while organizing his own materials, which consisted mostly of position papers and newspaper clippings.

"He rea-really did that, sir?"

Actually Lt. Kenworthy had only heard Captain Hall say that once, but Felix desperately needed encouragement.

"Yes he did. So just play your small role to the best of your ability and all will go well".

Felix brightened at bit, "If you don't mind me asking, sir, why-why, what I mean why-"

"-why did they pick me? If you hadn't noticed, Felix, our guests are all politicians."

"But I thought one of them is a ge-general?"

"A distinction without a difference--especially this one! Ever read von Clausewitz?"

"He wrote that book which proves that the Germans love war and want to conquer the world Just like that Treitschkes fellow."

Kenworthy chuckled. Lt. Martin wasn't sure what was funny.

"Hmm, not exactly. What von Clausewitz tried to tell us is that war is just another form of politics."

Felix liked Joe Kenworthy but didn't appreciate his cynical streak. "There shouldn't be any politics in a time of war as I see it. We should be one nation u-united in our cause. Politics is often such a dirty business. I could never be a pol-politician."

Kenworthy grinned, "Oh, I don't know about that. There are times I think I might give it a go once this damnable war is finally over."

Captain Hall approached them, "Felix, have you included the report from STEAMROLLER about an imminent German operation in France in your files?"

Reaching into his folders Martin quickly located it, "Yes, Captain here it is."

"Remove it. The admiral does not want anyone to mention it during the briefing. Is that understood?" Hall made sure to include Kenworthy as well as Martin in his stare.

"But-but, shouldn't, wouldn't the general, want-want to know about--?"

"--I just told you what the admiral ordered, Leftenant! Is that clear?"

"Aye, aye, sir!"

"And hurry up both of you! They could be here any minute now!"

Old Admiralty Building 4:11 PM London Time

They had just finished their tea.

"Admiral Oliver, my esteemed colleagues and I have come here tonight to learn as much as we can about the recent disturbing events off the American coast, and what implications we can draw from them about the current naval strategy of our main foe."

Felix scanned four faces. The first was the speaker, Sir Edward Carson, First Lord of the Admiralty. He was tall with strongly etched features. There was intelligence and determination in his eyes, and still more in that awesome mouth which had once destroyed Oscar Wilde. Yet Felix could also perceive some warmth in Carson. The man clearly showed a deep respect for the Navy and its leadership. But there was also signs of stress.

More chilling to Felix was the Foreign Secretary, Lord George Curzon. With his domelike forehead and piercing eyes he struck Felix as the personification of intellectual arrogance. The third MP was the Home Secretary, Andrew Bonar Law. There was determination mixed with concern and maybe a hint of kindness as well, but he also seemed to be holding a great sadness inside. Was it because of the war?

The general was Henry Wilson. He had the proverbial face only a mother could love. And if she did, it looked like she didn't get much in return. Felix had heard the name before-- was it something about Ireland? Before the war Ireland was in the news a lot. Wilson was now the army's liaison with the French. That sounded vague to Felix. Evidently it was very important though because he was going to be knighted at the beginning of July. Admiral Oliver had not been told that the general had been invited along by Carson until the last minute phone call, and was much more upset at that news than the early arrival.

"And lest I forget, before we adjourn, Lord Curzon here is most eager to discuss with Commander Kenworthy his provocative position paper about the impact of recent events on the political factions within Persia."

After this Admiral Oliver launched into a description of what was currently known about what was tentatively being labeled as the Battle of New York. Initially the briefing went smoothly. Felix was called up to place two maps on an easel-one of the western portion of the North Atlantic and the other a more detailed map of the area off New York. The admiral went into his exposition brandishing his pointer like a rapier. There were a few questions by Carson and just one from Bonar Law. Curzon asked to see photographs of the German warships and Felix produced them readily. After a while though Carson waved his right hand, "I commend you, Admiral Oliver, this really is a smashing performance that you're putting on. But I must confess that I have already been made all too familiar with the details of this dreadful encounter from other knowledgeable sources. I strongly suggest that we turn now to those pressing topics wherein the unique capabilities of the NID are more germane."

Oliver was a tad disappointed but this development was not unanticipated. "As you wish. M'Lord. I take it that your interest lies in our perceptions of German intentions".

"You read my mind, Admiral Oliver, it is now obvious why you oversee naval intelligence." Bonar Law and Curzon forced a perfunctory laugh. "Let's start with the start with the most fundamental topic of all. What is the likelihood of a full scale invasion?"

"On that topic M'Lord I have most excellent news. All our intelligence indicates no German preparations for an invasion of England within at least the next fortnight. This American expedition is another reason to believe that they pursue other stratagems. Likewise we currently rule out an attempt to turn our flank in Flanders with an amphibious assault. A small raid on our own coast by a few companies is somewhat more of a possibility but we think it rather unlikely as well, if for no other reason that any purpose it could possibly serve would not warrant the risks it entailed." Admiral Oliver eyed General Wilson uneasily as he spoke.

"I have no disagreement with you there, admiral, the problem is he is overreacting again. It's last year all over again with just a smidgen more justification this time."

Felix was not unsure as to whom General Wilson was referring to, but the ministers and the admiral acted as if it was obvious.

"The Germans might dare attempt such a raid largely for prestige purposes. They might think that by demonstrating the ability to land troops on our shores we will be intimidated into making peace on their wretched terms," speculated Bonar Law.

"Actually it might bring us some good if they tried,' Lord Curzon speculated, "public opinion would be so outraged that we'd finally be able to deal firmly with traitors like MacDonald and Snowden."

"Here, here! And I would hasten to add MacNeill and Connolly to that list, even though said event might jeopardize my current position," mused Carson, "but let us please hew to our agreed agenda. Admiral, there is another category of raid about which we must fret."

"You mean the shelling of our coastal cities, M'Lord? Aye, there we do have some major cause for concern. They were doing it back when they were afraid to take on the Grand Fleet. It is likely-very likely-- they will try that again. But now they may feel bold enough to attack targets like the Isle of Thanet or our army in Flanders, perhaps in conjunction with a ground assault."

Again Oliver eyed Wilson warily. The general responded, "Unlikely. The Flemish coastal region is ill suited for an infantry attack due to the flooding. Still they might attempt such a bombardment for propaganda and prestige."

Carson sighed, "So there is indeed an urgent need to strengthen our coastal fortifications?"

"I am afraid so. We also need to lay additional mines but you have to be careful that you don't impede the freedom of our own warships in doing that"

After a brief silence Carson continued, "Let's go on to discuss this daring American expedition that the Germans have mounted."

"We believe that the German warships off New York have two primary purposes. The first purpose is to disrupt that vital commerce, which flows into our nation from the Americas. This commerce has long been extremely important to our Empire. Britain imports a great deal of food and wool from Argentina; Mexico is our most important source of petroleum and Chile is a critical source of both copper and nitrates. The sea lane to the Americas is unfortunately of heightened importance at this critical moment in the war This is due to the shortage of artillery shells that is currently afflicting the entire Entente. Until internal production is increased we are extremely dependent on the United States."

Bonar Law turned to General Wilson, "Is it really that bad, Henry? Not just for our for us but the French as well?"

"I'm afraid so, and the Russians are still worse off. Fortunately for the French things are rather quiet now. Joffre closed the curtain on Second Artois a few days ago, and the Boche are concentrating on their Polish offensive. Joffre has been talking about a Big Push at the end of August involving our forces as well as his but I had serious doubts about that even before I learned about this latest batch of naval misfortune."

Carson turned back to Oliver, "But clearly, my dear admiral, while we wholeheartedly agree that these routes are vital, surely the Germans can expect to accomplish only the most transient of disruptions. And just as surely they must realize that the His Majesty will soon dispatch sufficient naval forces to sweep the seas of this menace as he did with von Spee and those other raiders?"

"The problem, M'Lord is that the late Admiral Sturdee had the advantage of both superior speed and firepower to Spee's squadron. But anything we send to the America's that can outgun the German battle cruisers will lag behind if the Germans choose to flee. So it would be difficult to force an engagement."

"So what you are saying is that we having nothing available which can destroy them?" Lord Carson sounded flummoxed.

"Well, er, uh, not really…" Admiral Oliver's voice trailed off. A strange look came into his eyes and he bit his lip. Though speaking to Carson Oliver now glanced more towards Curzon, "though however, there is one possibility to consider-"

"-which is-s-s??"

"Well, my lord ministers, the Japanese have just completed a class of four very powerful battle cruisers. We have already asked them several times to loan us these ships for the war. They have refused so far but now if we could persuade their government to send them through the Panama Canal to reinforce our North American Station, they should be able to destroy the German battle cruisers with ease".

Carson turned to Curzon, "Well George, can we make this happen?"

Curzon made a grin that didn't seem much like a smile to Felix, "Grey conducted his Japanese policy like a tone deaf man conducts a symphony. His feckless attempts to get them to expand their role in the war all came to naught. As we are more sensitive to the reality of the Asian situation than the Liberals I think we can do what is required-which you should note well, may include involving His Majesty-- and ultimately get you those ships. But alas I cannot deny that this process even with my best efforts will take some time. What you request, you know, could have a grave impact on Chinese history".

Felix smirked. Lord Curzon for all his great brain had said "Chinese" when he meant "Japanese". Admiral Oliver nodded, "Yes, M'Lord, I am afraid I can't see those ships arriving off New York before the end of August at the earliest."

Felix noticed Joe Kenworthy looked like he was going to say something but then had thought better of it.

Lord Curzon's beady eyes noticed it as well, "Hmm, Commander Kenworthy, you look like you have some deep thought ready to blossom. I for one would like very much to hear from you about how the Americans would take to having a powerful squadron of Japanese war vessels dashing up and down their Eastern seaboard."

Kenworthy glanced first at Oliver then at Hall. "Well yes, of course, your Lordship. To put it bluntly the Americans would be distraught. Maybe outraged is a better word. As you are already well cognizant they see the Japanese as a threat to their interests in the Pacific. While they would like to see the German warships go away, they would feel that Japanese ships is an instance of the cure being worse than the sickness."

Curzon nodded, "Basically true, though simplistic. For instance, if these ships were flying the Union Jack, that would be a horse of a different color. But that isn't going to happen, now is it? In any event, we will need to monitor closely the American political situation."

"Colonel House will be meeting with the head of our American operations either tomorrow or the next day," volunteered Captain Hall.

Admiral Oliver jumped in, "We are well aware there will be a delay as well as serious political repercussions. One thing to consider is the Germans will need coal. For a while they can get it from prizes though trying to transfer it while at sea is nasty even in calm seas. As far as the United States they are limited under the terms of the Hague on how often they can get coal from a neutral port. This may cause them to wander off to the Caribbean or maybe even to South Atlantic, where they could move from port to port picking up coal. If the Japanese warships arrive off New York whilst the Germans are coaling in Pernambucco or Caracas then all we have accomplished is the ire of the Americans."

"As well as withering political ridicule here in England. Point well taken, just what do you suggest?" asked Carson.

"If the Japanese squadron goes through the Panama Canal then they would rendezvous with our own light forces at Jamaica, taking on coal and other supplies. It might be wise to keep them at Jamaica so we can pounce on the Germans when they move south."

Bonar Law interrupted in an irate voice, "Just what do you mean IF they go through the Panama Canal?"

"Well, sir, there are some disadvantages to going through the Canal. The Germans probably have one or two spies watching the canal. And certainly the Americans will know of it and it will appear in their newspapers. That alone will cause some upset and it might tip off the German warships as to our plans. But now if the Japanese were to head for the Horn and rendezvous with us at Port Stanley, both the Germans and Americans would be completely in the dark. When the Germans come south they can be ambushed, say in the important sea lane off the River Platte."
.
Felix noted Bonar Law's complexion was darkening. Carson didn't look too happy either, sighing deeply before speaking, "While these plans have an admirable cleverness they seem founded on a great deal of supposition. In any case, we just can't let the Huns shut down the Atlantic for at least ten weeks, now can we? So whilst the Foreign Ministry works on what is sure to be very taxing negotiations with the government of Japan, it seems painfully obvious that we must quickly institute convoys with strong escorts."

Admiral Oliver flinched when he heard the dreaded C-word, 'Well, er, you see, well of course you are quite right Your Lordship, but there are all sort of details that would needs to be worked out. Details about assembling the convoy and getting the merchantmen to sail in a proper formation not to mention-"

"-we managed to do all that it in the age of sail as I recall. Come, come, it cannot be anymore difficult now, Admiral Oliver. I grant there will be some problems at the beginning but I have faith that the sea lords and yourself can quickly solve them."

"We have already had at least one Atlantic convoy " interjected Bonar Law, "--the October convoy of troopships from Canada! Safeguarding further reinforcements coming from Canada is yet another reason for the rapid implementation of such a program."

"We are very fortunate then that the principal components of Second Canadian Division have already made it to England,' remarked General Wilson.

"That is most reassuring, Henry, but I still see this so called American expedition as being ultimately aimed at Canada. Admiral Oliver, aren't you concerned about the vulnerability of Halifax now that North America Station has been so terribly weakened?"

"Halifax harbor has strong defenses including minefields. Powerful as the German ships are I don't think they are enough to tackle such defenses, especially when they are very far from a friendly base."

"The Canadians will insist that you reinforce their local forces! There will be grave enduring consequences if the Admiralty fails to assuage the legitimate concerns of the Canadian people in their hour of peril! And not just telling them to wait for Japanese, f'r God Almighty's sake, Japanese! warships to maybe, just possibly if their Emperor bloody feels like it and we don't send them off to Antarctica to count the penguins, show up for Labour Day!"

Wilson snickered loudly. Oliver fidgeted uneasily, "I can deeply appreciate Canada's plight, sir, and I would hasten to point out that before noon tomorrow we are dispatching two large submarines to Halifax."

"Ah, Admiral, pardon my interruption, but tha-that is…" Felix started to interrupt. Two submarines were going to Bermuda and only one to Halifax. He was correcting what he knew to be an obvious error when he noticed Captain Hall shaking his head. All eyes were on poor Felix including the dark ominous ones of Admiral Oliver. "WHAT AM I DOING!!!" he inwardly wailed.

"Your pa-pardon, Admiral. A momentary con-confusion on my part".

Wilson snickered some more. Oliver glared daggers at poor Felix. Hall's expression was a mixture of disapproval and relief with a flurry of blinking. Lord Carson however saw the awkward interruption as fortuitous for it gave him a slight pause to step in and deflect the flow of the conversation, "Admiral, you have said the German mission has two objectives. Does their second objective relate to Canada?"

"I think not, Lord Carson, instead methinks the second objective relates to the North Sea. It is our conclusion that the German battle cruisers are meant to draw disproportionate strength away from the Grand Fleet. Then the High Seas Fleet will sortie seeking battle against a weakened Grand Fleet".

"Yes I see where that would make sense from their perspective. Spee drew off forces many times his own. But back then we thought ourselves blessed with a comfortable surplus of warships and could well afford to do so. Now we no longer have that luxury."

Oliver nodded grimly, "That is the heart of our quandary. If we weaken the Grand Fleet then we make it more likely that it might suffer another defeat in the North Sea. But if we do nothing then we surrender the North Atlantic to the Germans. And if we start well escorted convoys from North America to the Western Approaches the Germans would still be able to wander off to harass the Caribbean or South Atlantic."

"A veritable Scylla and Charybdis! It seems that the critical routes are those from the northern port cities of the United States and, yes, Andrew, Halifax as well. If those routes are secure then what harm the Germans do to the south can be regarded as annoying but bearable. So, Admiral Oliver, what is your best guess as to when the High Seas Fleet would dare to seek battle? Do you have, pray tell, any specific intelligence on that issue?"

"I am afraid not, Your Lordship. The recent flight of a Zeppelin over Scapa Flow is somewhat disturbing, but our best information about the repairs on the High Seas Fleet leads me to believe middle or late July."

Carson pondered this then spoke wistfully, "So soon. I'd have thought we'd have more time to put things aright."

"Which is one reason our enemy doesn't want to give it to us. He knows we are working furiously to reinforce our destroyer flotillas, complete the Queen Elizabeth class and eliminate cordite flash. He knows time is on our side not his"

Carson sighed deeply and frowned, "It pains me to say this but then isn't the best course for us in the near term simply to decline battle? No, let me rephrase that, I mean to say is to only accept battle under highly favorable circumstances and with a cautious battle plan. This policy would allow us to commit sufficient forces to safeguard the North Atlantic sea lanes. The consequence of another major defeat in the North Sea, needless to say, would be grave, extremely grave."

"While that does sound most sensible it could prove not so easy to practice. If they bombard Margate or Dunkirk does the Grand Fleet simply remain anchored at Scapa? Or Letters might draw Harwich Force using light forces and then bring up their other battle cruisers to inflict heavy losses upon them, not unlike what we did at Heligoland Bight. With Harwich Force weakened they could then raid our line of communication with the BEF"

"Yes, admiral, unfortunately I get your drift. What are your recommendations?"

"Well for one thing, we can use the older classes of predreadnoughts battleships for convoy escort work. A goodly number of them will be freed up once the evacuation of the Dardanelles is complete. If we can accelerate-"

General loudly interrupted admiral, '-If we dare to accelerate the plan for evacuation we risk a slaughter on the beaches! That difficult operation is precarious enough as it stands!"

Carson raised his hands in supplication, "General Wilson, please! You have my solemn word that the Admiralty will not be so callous as to disregard the safety of our intrepid soldiers who have fought so bravely against the Turk." Thinking it best to change the subject, he darted glances at Bonar Law and the scowling general then spoke, "Admiral Oliver, there is yet one aspect of the German presence in the Americas about which I require some reassurance. De Robeck has told me that he saw no sign of an attempt to stir up an Irish rebellion. Yet when I look at the United States I see a country, which despite all the fawning blandishments of Colonel House and his ilk, contains certain unfettered elements inimical to our Empire. For example the Fenian Brotherhood and the still more dangerous Clan na Gael-'

"Quite right! Don't forget those damnable American Fenians dared to invade Canada back in 1866!" barked Bonar Law.

"And I may add that the delightful Ghadar Party which has been the source of so much mischief in India this year, has its headquarters in San Francisco," said Curzon.

Oliver fidgeted some more with quick glances directed at both Hall and Kenworthy, "Yes this is all quite true. And they also have a substantial population of German origin to boot. But it is very important to distinguish primary objectives from secondary. Our analysis does not see Ireland as a major objective at this time. Oh, we think that the Imperator was full of spies and saboteurs with a host of tricks up their sleeve. But we have no indication of a major operation directed at Ireland in the near future."

Carson leaned forward, "I think you are well aware how seriously I regard Ireland, Admiral Oliver. I must ask you now with the utmost gravity to relate anything you know connecting the current naval situation with Ireland."

Oliver bit his lip and glanced at Hall who answered for him, "We have some information, M'Lord, to the effect that Devoy met with two people, a man and a woman, who were passengers aboard the Imperator. We have not yet established their identity. This has been our sole clue regarding a connection with Ireland".

"Don't assume because one of them was a woman this was merely a social call. Make every effort to find out who they are!" commanded Carson.

After some awkward silence Curzon turned to Wilson, "General Wilson, since we are very fortunate to have you with us today I must take this opportunity to ask how the French are reacting to the setbacks of the last month."

"I am afraid we have some cause for concern there is a well. For one thing, there is a small group of French leaders who dare whisper amongst themselves that our great nation has lost the will to fight, that we are scared and even now are secretly negotiating a separate peace with the Kaiser."

"What monstrous calumny!" thundered Bonar Law.

"It most assuredly is, but as I said those poor fools are but a small group. More troubling to me is a much larger group-- a group which I believe even includes Joffre--which fears greatly that we will revert to a mostly naval strategy."

Suddenly there was a chill in the room.

By Tom Bornholt